Abstract

In the context of the  superposition and interaction of multiple  factors such as the century of change, the  Ukraine   crisis, and the   global   economic   downturn,  the situation in Africa in 2023 shows the following characteristics.

First, Africa's political  situation is generally  stable, but  local  security risks  are rising. In 2023, the political and security situation in  Africa will continue to maintain overall stability amid the interweaving of changes,and peaceful development will remain the mainstream. During    the   year,15    countries,including   Nigeria,  the   Democratic   Republic   of   the    Congo, Zimbabwe, Gabon and Liberia,held presidential or parliamentary elections, which were generally smooth and the problem of prone to chaos during  elections was alleviated.However,under the influence of external power competition and internal governance crisis, political and  security risks in  some parts of Africa are on the rise, which is highlighted in the following military coups in Niger and Gabon, attempted coups in  Burkina Faso,Sierra  Leone and Guinea-Bissau,and a new round of “coup wave”seems to  be  spreading; Burkina Faso,Mali and  Niger  announced their withdrawal from the Group of Five Sahel countries and established then “Sahel Union of States”. The complicated and intractable internal conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo  not only seriously undermine the internal stability of the three countries, but also have a major impact on the regional situation.The counter-terrorism  situation in Africa still faces severe challenges, especially the deteriorating and spillover terrorist situation in the Sahel region.In the face of difficulties and challenges, African countries are committed to solving African problems in an African way and actively exploring development paths suited to their  own realities.

Second,Africa's  economy has bottomed out, but the pace of economic recovery has slowed. In  2023, African countries will focus on recovery and development after the epidemic, and the economic situation will be mixed. Due to the global economic slowdown,rising geopolitical tensions,global monetary policy tightening, climate disasters and other factors, coupled with the sluggish performance of major economies such  as South  Africa, Nigeria and Angola, Africa's economic growth has fallen short of expectations. Inflation in Africa is at its highest level in a decade,driven by rising food and energy prices as a result of the Ukraine crisis and the depreciation of African currencies against the dollar.Thanks to fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring,the fiscal deficits of African countries have begun to narrow, but due to weak international demand and commodity price fuctuations, Africa's  terms  of trade  have deteriorated,the  current  account deficit has widened, and foreign direct investment has declined slightly.The  African continental Free Trade area is in the ascendant and the integrated market is beginning to take shape, which is expected to drive the sustained recovery of consumption,manufacturing and tourism services. Looking ahead to 2024, if African countries can work to reduce the imported shocks from geopolitical risks, accelerate the development of renewable energy industry to improve energy poverty,improve  debt   servicing  capacity,reduce  debt  risk, Africa's  economic  development will be improved.

Third,Africa enjoys a strong momentum of self-reliance through unity and greater strategic independence. In 2023,all parties in the world will increase their strategic attention and investment in Africa,and Africa will become an important variable affecting the international balance of power.In the context of the great changes,Africa,as the continent with the largest concentration of countries in the “Global South”,has become the object of competition among major powers.The United States and Western countries have successively visited Africa,and Russia, Saudi Arabia and Italy have successively held summits with Africa,which has brought opportunities for the promotion of Africa's strategic autonomy.The African Union has been formally invited to join the G20,helping to strengthen Africa's visibility and voice on the international stage.South Africa held the 15th BRICS Leaders' Meeting  and  successfully  led  the   expansion  of  BRICS  membership,Ethiopia and   Egypt   became   new  members   of BRICS. Major   African  powers proposed an African version of the“peace initiative”to resolve the Ukraine crisis,  and   sent delegations   to   Russia   and   Ukraine   for   diplomatic   mediation,which significantly   increased   Africa's   international  influence.In   the   face   of   disputes between   major   powers   outside   the   region,African   countries   have   adopted   a flexible,pragmatic  and  non-exclusive  balanced  policy,opposing  the introduction of great  power  competition  into  Africa  by the  United  States  and  the  West,and refusing  to“choose  sides”.In  addition,African  countries  have  demonstrated  their collective influence by  speaking  with  one voice  in  global affairs  such  as  climate change and Security Council reform.

In 2023,China-Africa  exchanges  and  cooperation  in various  fields will make steady  progress.The  16th  Senior  Officials' Meeting  of  the  Forum  on  China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) was    successfully   held,and    the     implementation of the nine  projects  made  steady  progress.In  2024,a  new  summit  of  the   Forum  on  China-Africa  Cooperation  will  be  held.China  and  Africa  will  work  together  to elevate practical cooperation to a higher level.

Keywords: 

African Situation;Political Situation; Security Issues; Economic Recovery; Strategic  Autonomy