The 20th Group of 20 (G20) Summit will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from November 22 to 23, with the theme of "Unity, Equality, and Sustainability." This marks the first time in history that the G20 Summit is being hosted on the African continent, signifying that the once perceived “hopeless continent” as stated by the Economist in 2000, has now risen to be a “hopeful continent”, claiming its rightful seat at the global decision-making table.

The Johannesburg summit further places Africa’s development aspirations, challenges, and solutions directly at the core of global governance, highlighting the significantly enhanced voice of the Global South, in international affairs. However, as the focus on the hosting of the G20 is cast on Africa and the larger Global South Countries, the summit comes at a time when the top two largest economies in the world (United States and China) are at a crossroad, with each seeking to influence the continent’s future. This emerging competition for influence in Africa reflects two distinct schools of thought. The first, advocated by China, is rooted in a ‘developmental statecraft philosophy’, while the second, advanced under the Trump Administration, is driven by a ‘hegemonic statecraft philosophy’, as indicated in his statement of boycotting the upcoming G20 summit.

On developmental statecraft philosophy, China has become a major developmental partner for Africa, providing transformative shared global public goods such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI), the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), and the Global Governance Initiative (GGI) that have prioritize inclusive growth and development for the continent. These global public goods have helped the world move beyond unilateralism and hegemonism, to advance a fair, just, and prosperous future for the continent amid current turbulence and uncertainties.

For instance, effective December 1, 2024, China granted zero-tariff treatment to all least development countries. In June this year, China announced the zero-tariff policy will cover 100 percent of tariff lines for all 53 African countries that have diplomatic ties with Beijing, granting the continent and other countries in the global south access to its high-quality market size of more than 1.4 billion people. The zero-tariff policy resonates well with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), that promotes the creation of a single continental market for goods and services, connecting all 55 African Union (AU) member states. With an additional market size of more than 1.4 billion people, China empowers the AfCFTA, providing new opportunities for the continent to access and become a player in the global economy, leading to increased competitiveness, more efficient production, and sustainable global value chains.

Similarly, according to the "China and Africa in the New Era: A Partnership of Equals" white paper published on November 26, 2021 by the State Council Information Office,  China has constructed and upgraded over 100,000 km of highways, about 10,000 km of railways, approximately 1,000 bridges, nearly 100 ports, 66,000 km of power transmission and distribution lines along with other extensive energy projects such as solar farms and hydroelectric dams, and a communications backbone network of 150,000 km in Africa. Over the years more roads, railway lines, bridges, ports, power transmission lines and fiber networks, among other projects have been constructed adding to the existing data. These projects have enhanced connectivity, facilitated trade, and supported industrial development across the continent, enabling the continent to address their infrastructure deficit and achieve long-term socio-economic development agenda.

China has also spearheaded the creation of new financial multilateral institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), BRICS' New Development Bank (NDB), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which offer Africa alternative and sustainable development financing options. These institutions help diversify the global financial opportunities and reduce reliance on World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, institutions that have been under the hegemonic influence of the U.S. policies for a long time.  

On the other hand, the ‘hegemonic statecraft philosophy’ under President Trump’s "America First" agenda has negatively impacted the continent. Trump has led the U.S to withdrew from the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nation Human Rights Council (UNHRC), and other international organizations, dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID), and defunded the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), weakening democratic advancement, and institutions that have been instrumental in promoting food security, healthcare services, education, and civil society programs in the Continent.

Further, the recent U.S. protectionist policies of reciprocal tariffs have disrupted global trade, highly destabilizing the continents economic growth and development. These tariffs have slowed production, disrupted supply chains, and diminished the demand for African raw materials, threatening the continent’s export economy. Additionally, they have contributed to job losses and the closure of businesses, especially the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), a critical source of youth employment in Africa. Africa countries which rely heavily on access to U.S. markets through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade program that provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for eligible Sub-Saharan African countries, became the most affected and vulnerable economies to be hit by the reciprocal tariffs.  

Furthermore, in an attempt to counter China growing influence in the continent, Trump administration despite the decision of a planned boycott for the G20 summit, the U.S has been actively pursuing a transactional foreign policy in Africa focused on securing access to critical raw minerals in exchange for potential economic and security cooperation with countries such the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The minerals such as cobalt, manganese, lithium, and other rare earth elements, many of which Africa holds in vast reserves, are vital for advancing U.S technology and defense industries.

Nonetheless, the G20 summit in South Africa should not be used as pawn by some countries to advance their own hegemonic geopolitical interest. In many ways, the Johannesburg summit is Africa’s moment to promote its own developmental narrative. For Africa, the continent is in need for partnerships that propels its industrialization, integration, and long-term sustainable development. Thus, at the summit with the potential boycott of the U.S, other G20 members including China, will deepen their already existing partnership with Africa. China, will continue to push for the 10 partnership action agenda from the 2024 Beijing FOCAC Summit with a focus on mutual learning among civilizations, trade prosperity, industrial chain cooperation, connectivity, development cooperation, health, agriculture and livelihoods, people-to-people exchanges, green development, and common security.

Thus, with both China and the U.S seeking to shape the continent’s future in their own ways, the Johannesburg G20 summit is a testament that the global power structure is gradually shifting from a unipolar order to a multipolar system characterized by greater inclusivity and equality. This growing participation by Africa in global decision-making processes marks a significant transformation in the international system, where countries in the Global South who were once marginalized and excluded from key discussions such as those focusing on financial reforms, debt sustainability, and climate change, are now asserting their voice and influence boldly, and fully participate in solving those challenges, and charting their own path to development with like-minded partners like China.

About the author: Dennis Munene, the Executive Director of the China-Africa Center at the Africa Policy Institute, Kenya.