The trilateral meeting between China, Russia, and Iran held in Beijing on March 14, 2025 is extremely important because it is linked to many constants and international and regional contexts, and it is considered a major shift in the engineering of the regional and international system. Its repercussions are clearly reflected on the Middle East and Arab countries, in light of the recent "Security Belt 2025" Joint Exercise conducted by the three countries.

A China-Russia-Iran meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue started in Beijing on March 14, 2025. China's Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu chairs the meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov Sergey Alexeevich and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi attending. The three parties exchanged views on the Iranian nuclear issue, along with other topics of mutual interest.

It is not the first meeting between the three parties, but it is the first meeting under Donald Trump's presidency, so the meeting is an attempt to seize the limited time Iran has before the deal's expiry date in October 2025 to reach a new agreement so that  the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) can be preserved.

With regard to the international context, there is an Iranian refusal to hold any talks with the American counterpart in light of the American threat in order to reach a nuclear agreement. Since Trump took office, there may be signs of rapprochement between Russian-American relations and the Iranian nuclear file, but this will not naturally lead to a radical change in the Russian position towards the Iranian nuclear file. Therefore, this meeting comes to explore ideas and try to formulate common visions. It is a preparatory meeting to explore the next stage and develop an action plan on how to move, especially in light of China's mediation and crisis resolution diplomacy, such as the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation under Chinese auspices.

There are many opportunities and challenges highlighted by this co-operation. The most important opportunities can be summarized as follows:

The co-operation between these three powers is based on the idea of common interest and gain, which are reflected in:

1- Military and security cooperation: In recent years, several joint military exercises have been organized between the Chinese, Russian and Iranian navies, especially in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman. This military coordination comes as a clear indication of their desire and ability to strengthen regional security, and expand maritime security cooperation.

2- Economic cooperation: China, as the second largest economy in the world, plays a vital role in trade cooperation with Russia and Iran, most notably the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with Iran.

3- Political and diplomatic support: The three countries mutually support each other in international forums, especially in the Security Council, and the three countries also support speeches calling for a ‘multipolar’ world order, so this meeting is a revival of the diplomatic efforts undertaken by China to resolve peace in the region.

4- Sending a clear message: The trilateral meeting between China, Russia and Iran unequivocally affirmed the imperative to terminate all unlawful unilateral sanctions. The three countries jointly called on parties concerned to work collectively to create conducive conditions for diplomatic solutions, which may reflect positively on the development, stability and security in the Middle East region.

However, there are also some challenges that may face the outcome of the trilateral meeting in the medium and long term. The Beijing meeting will be China's latest diplomatic effort with the aim of enhancing communication and coordination on the issue and creating conditions for resuming dialogue and negotiation at an early date.

These negotiations may end with the possibility of reaching a new agreement in the so-called ‘Borjam 2’, and ‘Borjam’ is the Persian name for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It is unlikely that this scenario will take place, or that we find ourselves in front of a kind of partial understanding between Iran and the West in light of the difficulty of reaching a new agreement on Iran's nuclear program, similar to the prisoner exchange deal between Iran and the United States, which took place in August 2023, with Qatari mediation, but in this case Russian and Chinese mediation will play the biggest role.

The future of the Iranian nuclear file remains a pressure card to be used and swung back and forth between the various international parties in a Middle Eastern future that is full of ambiguity. In the short and medium term, China will build credibility through multilateral engagement, and strive to urge parties concerned to abide by and implement international accountability measures, so as to maintain regional stability.

About the author:

Rana Mohamed Abdel-Aal Mazied, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Suez Canal University and the Institute for Research and Arab Studies, Egypt.