The year 2025 presents a set of interconnected key driving forces shaping global governance discourses. These themes do not emerge in any particular order or operate in isolation. Each reflects distinct yet overlapping dynamics influencing the trajectory of international relations, economic growth strategies and national politics. From economic protectionism to the push for a pluriversal world order, these themes represent the black swans (unpredictable events with significant impact) and white swans (predictable trends that are certain to occur and shape outcomes) of our times, illustrating both the volatility and continuity that characterise the international community.

Theme One: America First – tariffs, trade and national interest

The resurgence of the "America First" ideology under President Donald Trump will be a defining story of 2025. This metanarrative emphasises protectionist economic policies, prioritising tariffs, trade renegotiations and narrow national interest. Rooted in the belief that global trade must primarily benefit American industries and workers, the United States plans to impose tariffs and revisit trade agreements to rebuild its industrial base.

This approach represents a new critique of globalisation, appealing to domestic audiences who feel marginalised by the shifting tides of international production and trade. However, it is fuelling global trade tensions as other nations, especially China, are likely to respond with reciprocal measures or pivot towards alternative markets, thus disrupting supply chains. This inward focus on economic sovereignty aligns with a broader trend of nations seeking to revitalise local industries, although it risks fragmenting global value chains and exacerbating geopolitical rivalries. Countries like Canada, Mexico, and key European states will likely experience immediate effects in the short term, while the Global South may bear longer-term consequences.

The implications of this megatrend are reverberating well beyond the United States, influencing international trade dynamics, economic growth patterns and the broader discourse on balancing national interest with global cooperation.

Theme Two: "Made in…" narratives taking centre stage

A parallel but distinct theme is emerging in the global emphasis on "Made in…" narratives. As nations strive to strengthen their industrial capabilities, this movement reflects a push towards self-reliance and economic nationalism. Developed economies such as the United States and key members of the European Union are championing these narratives, inspired by the industrial successes of China, India and, increasingly, Vietnam. Interestingly, China and India's "Made in…" campaigns targeted global markets whilst African countries like South Africa promoted ideas for domestic consumers – it was called Proudly South African. The new "Made in…" imperatives will be underpinned by protectionist intentions, often tied to broader nationalistic agendas.

Governments will adopt policies to incentivise local production, reshaping industrial frameworks and redrawing supply chains to prioritise domestic capabilities. While these efforts boost national economies and create local jobs, they contribute to a competitive and confrontational global environment. Economic nationalism threatens to undermine global collaboration, leading to a trading system where self-interest precedes mutual benefit. Mainly, they will drive structural transformation through export substitution and protectionism instead of innovation, human capital formation and investments.

The "Made in…" narrative represents the contradictions of free trade rhetoric. At the same time, the global economic integration paradigm promised to strengthen domestic economies universally; in practice, its benefits accrued mainly to the Global North. This shift towards localisation is challenging those assumptions. The Global South will have to contend with this white swan.

Theme Three: The Resurgence of the Global South

The idea of the "Global South" is gaining renewed prominence in 2025 as developing nations assert their presence on the global stage. This metanarrative reflects a collective push for a multipolar world order, challenging the dominance of traditional Western powers. Platforms like the G20 and BRICS+ are amplifying these voices, with South Africa playing a pivotal role in advancing the aspirations of the Global South.

Countries within this bloc collaborate on trade, technology and infrastructure development, fostering alternative frameworks to those historically dominated by Western-led systems. Calls for reforming multilateral institutions are intensifying, demanding that they better reflect the diverse realities and interests of the Global South. Alternative institutions like the BRICS Bank are being strengthened for fair and equitable access to capital. However, internal challenges such as governance disparities and regional rivalries are posing risks to the cohesion and effectiveness of this movement.

The rise of the Global South is signalling a shift towards a more inclusive and representative global order. While countering traditional hegemonic powers, it also counterbalances other populist-nationalist movements, including MAGA ideologies. Two civilisations will clash this year: MAGA vs the Global South. The first will use what I call hegemonic statecraft (coercion and blunt power), and the latter will use what I refer to as developmental statecraft (collaborative multinationalism).    

Theme Four: peaceful resolution of disputes

Global emphasis on peaceful resolution of disputes is emerging as another dominant theme for 2025. With conflicts persisting in regions such as Africa, the Middle East and Euro-Asia, there is a growing recognition that diplomacy is both a moral imperative and a pragmatic necessity for stability.

Major powers and regional organisations actively advocate for negotiations and dispute mediation. These efforts are driven by genuine concern for human suffering and the strategic necessity of stabilising volatile regions. However, some new calls for peaceful resolution of disputes must not be seen as purely altruistic. Geopolitical interests are central to these moves, with global elites from Washington to Berlin seeking to gain strategic advantages while maximising national interests.

Despite these efforts, the entrenched interests and rivalries make pursuing peaceful outcomes a black swan. This theme underscores humanity's enduring struggle for peace, offering hope alongside the sobering complexities of achieving long-term stability.

As we conclude, it is essential to point out that there are cross-cutting narratives that we have not listed separately. Like the ones above, they have equal strategic implications. I am referring to advances in artificial intelligence and concerns about climate change. All these themes will shape the global dynamics of 2025. While each represents a unique strand of influence, they are interconnected and unfolding within a broader context of disruptive metanarratives. Cross-cutting issues such as artificial intelligence and climate change mitigation intersect with these themes, adding complexity to global strategies and rivalries. AI is redefining power dynamics through control of data and innovation, while climate change is compelling nations to navigate the tensions between economic priorities and environmental imperatives. Together, these forces are weaving a vortex of black and white swans, making 2025 a defining year for our shared future.

About the author:

Busani Ngcaweni, director-general of the National School of Government in South Africa.